Will Corona lead to behavioral change? In my previous article, I used Fogg’s behavioral model to show that behavior is not so easy to change. But what if we succeed? What will the Netherlands look like in 2-3 years? Which plans have become reality? How do we measure success? And what is the effect on the economy and the environment? What role does technology play?
To illustrate this, I made two positive scenarios based on the https://www.futuresociety.nl/. Scenarios that have the same main character, who experience the same, but with a fundamentally different starting position. Perhaps feminine versus masculine.
- Post-Corona Scenario 1: Well-being and climate. This scenario is about the radical change and the increased level of prosperity in the Netherlands. The climate problem has been solved.
- Post-Corona Scenario 2: Prosperity and climate. This scenario is about economic change and the introduction of a healthy green economy.
I am very curious which scenario appeals to you the most and why?
Post-Corona Scenario 1: Well-being and climate
December 2022
It will never be as it used to be ”, Layla repeats to herself the words of Prime Minister Kaag. Corona has changed the world forever, she understands this almost 3 years after the first reports of illness. But she never suspected that an evolution was going to be a revolution. In so many different areas.
You saw it happening everywhere, more and more women in key positions. In business and government. The best example is the 6-party coalition in the Netherlands led by Sigrid Kaag. But a woman also became the big boss at the largest company in the Netherlands, Shell. Under her leadership, Shell appears to become the largest sustainable energy supplier in Europe in 2030. What a revolution. Hospitals, pension funds, retail chains, female leadership is becoming visible everywhere. And the most interesting thing is the focus on welfare instead of prosperity. “What is the added value of the company for society” ?, is now an important question at many shareholder meetings, in addition to the question about creating shareholder value.
“5 more minutes!” A voice shakes Layla awake from her daydream. “Focus Layla”, she says to herself, “you are going live on national television in a minute”. She quickly scrolls through her notes, the core message is clear: thanks to welfare thinking, the world will never be like it was again: the climate has been saved. Then the time has come. With a confident stride, she walks through the studio and sits down at the table of TV-host Eva Jinek. Waving hello, because the shaking of hands has been abolished a year ago, a few deep breaths and then the time has come. “… and at the table today is Layla Baker, climate researcher and author of the book: The Carbon Saving Virus, about the effects of Corona on climate change,” the presenter begins. “I have read your book and was baffled by the conclusion; the climate problem will be solved by itself… How about this? ”.
“The figures, although still early, seems to show this. Firstly, we saw a huge decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, but also particulate matter (PM 2,5 and 10) and nitrogen, mainly due to the reduction from the transport and industry sectors. Worldwide we are talking about a 50% reduction compared to a year earlier. This has everything to do with the lockdowns. The most interesting happened in mid-2020, the lockdowns had now partly been lifted, but the increase in greenhouse emissions hardly increased. The main cause was people’s changing behaviors. We all seem to appreciate the limitation of our lives. The demand for consuming goods and the demand for entertainment fell sharply, the demand for real experiences such as being together increased. I’ll give four examples:
- The Corona crisis has finally brought acceptance of tech solutions that are climate-friendly. Take working from home. We have seen that this actually works. Employees are happier, experience less stress, are more productive. And with an average CO2 reduction of 25%, it is really a climate-friendly way of working. Now that children are returning to school, the time is come to make working from home, the standard.
- And you can see that on the road. There are no more traffic jams. That’s really something of pre-Corona. There has been room on the roads for product transport, but there too you see fewer transport movements because the need to continue to consume has also become substantially less. It is also much less crowded in the air, these figures were not included in the national CO2 emissions, but a halving of the number of flight movements has immediately resulted in much cleaner air. And that not only has a positive effect on the CO2 reduction, but also on, for example, the amount of particulate matter in the air.
- Interesting is also the dependence we had on “cheap” production in low-wage countries. We see that a much larger part of the working population, first working in transport & logistics, has now started local production companies. Thanks to the government’s SME fund, more than a million jobs have been created for work previously done elsewhere. Work that people are proud of, craftsmanship is appreciated again. Local production does not have an effect on national CO2 reduction, but it has a positive effect on the global CO2 reduction and that is what is needed.
- And finally the energy transition. Less energy is needed, which seems directly to lower CO2 emissions. But the support among the population for a healthy life has increased enormously. And fossil fuels no longer fits that. Local energy generation is catching up. The demand for windmills, solar panels, green hydrogen and batteries is so high that new companies have started all over the Netherlands to respond to this.
“We are therefore talking about a green revolution, initiated by the Corona crisis,” concludes Eva Jinek. “Exactly”, Layla adds: “A revolution that continues to evolve thanks to the support of the population and the growth of awareness, prosperity is really secondary to well-being. And with the introduction of the new welfare monitor, which has replaced the GDP as the most important indicator, I expect that as a country, as Europe and ultimately as a world, we will be able to give much better guidance to the value of welfare based society ”. The interview at Jinek ends. Live TV focuses on the climate effects of the post-Corona era for nearly an hour. “It will never be the way it was”, “no”, Layla thinks, “it will get much better”.
Post-Corona Scenario 2: Prosperity and Climate
December 2022
“It is the way it was again”, Layla repeats to herself the words of Prime Minister Rutte. Corona has plunged the world into a major crisis, but we have overcome it again. “Fortunately, back to square one,” she thinks, with the environmental changes we needed. The Corona crisis could have lasted much longer, but vigorous government action has combated all symptoms.
During the Corona era you saw it happening everywhere, a feeling of a great crisis was created and uncertainty arose. And because of this uncertainty, the support for radical changes suddenly became popular among the population. There are strong men at the helm of the Netherlands who saw that it was necessary. Pumping a lot of money into the economy produced very good results. The Rutte Plan is a great success, the free fall in the number of bankruptcies has stopped and a lot of employment has been created. There is also much more government control. Often with the help of apps, big data and artificial intelligence, checks are carried out in the field of health, but also in the spending of government subsidies and the payment of taxes such as the newly introduced CO2 tax.
“5 more minutes!” A voice shakes Layla awake from her daydream. “Focus Lalya”, she says to herself, “you are going live on national television in a minute”. She quickly scrolls through her notes, the core message is clear: thanks to the concept of prosperity, the world is back as it was, but with a green approach. Then the time has come. With a confident stride, she walks through the studio and sits down at the table of TV-host Eva Jinek. Just shaking hands to make contact with everyone and then the time has come. “… and at the table today is Layla Baker, climate researcher and author of the book: The Carbon Saving Virus, about the effects of Corona on climate change,” the presenter begins. “I have read your book and was baffled by the conclusion; the climate problem will be solved in 2050… What about this? ”.
“The figures, although still early, seem to show this. Firstly, we saw a huge decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, but also particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen, in particular due to the reduction from the transport and industry sectors. Worldwide we are talking about a reduction of 35% compared to a year earlier. This has everything to do with the lockdowns. When normal life started slowly, people were much more conscious about life. That is the main cause of people’s changing behavior. We all seem to appreciate the limitation of our lives. Fortunately, the demand for goods and entertainment rose again and our economy started to grow again. But now with a green edge. I give four examples:
- The Corona crisis has finally brought acceptance of tech solutions that are climate-friendly. Take working from home. We have seen that this actually works. Employees are happier, experience less stress, are more productive. And with an average CO2 reduction of 25%, it is really a climate-friendly way of working. Now that children are returning to school, the time is come to make working from home, the standard.
- And you can see that on the road. There are 50% fewer traffic jams. There is more space for transportation which benefit our country as a trading nation. The introduction of the 100 km as a maximum speed has helped enormously, as has the introduction of a CO2 tax on polluting products. The tax has financed the Rutte Plan, which means that the knife cuts both ways.
- Also interesting is the dependence we had on “cheap” production in low-wage countries. We see that a much larger part of the working population, first working in transport & logistics, has now started local production companies. Thanks to the government’s Rutte Plan, more than a million jobs have been created for work previously done elsewhere. Work that people are proud of, craftsmanship is appreciated again. Local production does not have an effect on national CO2 reduction, but it has a positive effect on the global CO2 reduction and that is what is needed.
- And finally the energy transition. Public support for a healthy life has increased enormously. And due to the CO2 tax, gray electricity and fossil fuels have almost doubled in price. Local energy generation is catching up. The demand for windmills, solar panels, green hydrogen and batteries is so high that new companies have started all over the Netherlands to respond to this.
“So we are talking here about a green evolution, initiated by the Corona crisis,” concludes Eva Jinek. “Exactly”, Layla adds: “An evolution thanks to the support of the population and the growing awareness of how valuable a healthier world is, has led to a structural reduction of CO2 emissions. The growth of the GDP goes hand in hand with CO2 reduction, something that was considered impossible in a pre-Corona era. The interview at Jinek ends. Live TV focuses on the climate effects of the post-Corona era for nearly an hour. “It is the way it was again,” no “, Layla thinks,” it will get much better “.