Will Corona lead to behavior change? In my previous article, I used Fogg’s behavioral model to show that behavior is not that easy to change. But what if we do succeed? What will the Netherlands look like in 2-3 years? What plans have become reality? How do we measure success? And what will be the effect on the economy and the environment? What role does technology play?
To make sense of this, following the example of https://www.futuresociety.nl/, I have created two positively styled scenarios. Scenarios that have the same protagonist, experiencing the same thing, but with a fundamentally different starting point. Perhaps female versus male.
- Post-Corona Scenario 1: Welfare and Climate. This scenario is about the radical change and increased welfare level of the Netherlands. The climate problem has been solved.
- Post-Corona Scenario 2: Prosperity and Climate. This scenario deals with economic change and the introduction of a healthy green economy.
I am very curious which scenario appeals to you the most and why?
Post-Corona Scenario 1: Welfare and climate
December 2022
It will never be like it was,” Layla repeats to herself the words of Prime Minister Kaag. Corona has changed the world forever, she has figured that out almost 3 years after the first reports of illness. But never did she suspect the evolution became a revolution. On so many different levels.
Everywhere you saw it happening, more and more women in key positions. In business and in government. The best example is the six-party coalition in the Netherlands led by Sigrid Kaag. But also at the largest company in the Netherlands, Shell, a woman became the big boss. Under her leadership, Shell looks set to become Europe’s largest renewable energy supplier by 2030. What a revolution. Hospitals, pension funds, retail chains, female leadership is becoming visible everywhere. And the most interesting thing is the steering for well-being rather than prosperity. “What is the added value of the company to society?” is now a key question at many shareholder meetings, in addition to the question about creating shareholder value.
“Five more minutes!” A voice shakes Layla awake from her daydream. “Focus Layla,” she tells herself, “you’re about to be up.” Quickly scrolling through her notes, the key message is clear: thanks to welfareism, the world will never be the way it was: the climate is saved. Then it’s on. With a confident stride, she walks through the studio and sits down at Jinek’s table. Just a quick hello wave, since shaking hands was abolished a year ago, a few deep breaths and then it’s time. “…And at the table today is Layla Baker, climate researcher and author of the book: The Carbon Saving Virus, about the effects of Corona on climate change,” begins the hostess. “I have read your book and was stunned by the conclusion; the climate problem will be solved on its own…How about this?”.
“The figures, although still preliminary, seem to show this. First, by 2020 we saw a huge reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as particulate matter and nitrogen, particularly due to reductions from the transportation and industrial sectors. Globally, we are talking about a 50% reduction from a year earlier. This has everything to do with the lockdowns. The most interesting thing happened in mid-2020, the lockdowns had now been partially lifted, but the increase in greenhouse gas emissions barely rose. The main cause was the changing behavior of people. We all seem to have come to appreciate the limitation of our lives. The demand for consuming goods and the demand for entertainment fell sharply; on the contrary, the demand for real experience such as togetherness rose. I will give four examples:
- The Corona crisis has finally brought acceptance of tech solutions that are climate-friendly. Take working from home. We have seen that this actually works. Employees are happier, experience less stress, are more productive. And with an average CO2 reduction of 25%, it really is a climate-friendly way of working. Now that children are going back to school, there is also more room to make working from home the standard.
- And that is reflected on the road. There are no more traffic jams. That’s really something from pre-Corona. There is room for product transport, but even there you see less transport movements because the need to just keep consuming has also become substantially less. Also in the air is much less crowded, these figures were not included in the national CO2 emissions, but halving the number of flight movements has immediately created much cleaner air. And that not only has a positive effect on CO@ reduction, but also on the amount of particulate matter in the air, for example.
- Also interesting is the dependence we had on “cheap” manufacturing in low-wage countries. We see that a much larger portion of the labor force, first employed in transportation & logistics, have now started manufacturing businesses locally. Thanks to the government’s SME fund, more than a million jobs have been created for work previously done elsewhere. Work that people are proud of, craftsmanship and trades are valued again. Local production does not seem to directly lead to national CO2 reduction, but it does lead to global CO2 reduction and that is what is needed.
- And finally, the energy transition. Less energy is needed, which seems to lead directly to lower CO2 emissions. But public support for healthy living has increased tremendously. And fossil fuels are no longer appropriate for that. Local energy generation is busy catching up. The demand for windmills, solar panels, green hydrogen and batteries is so high that new companies have started up all over the Netherlands to capitalize on this.
“So here we are talking about a green revolution, initiated by the Corona crisis,” concludes Eva Jinek. “Exactly,” adds Layla: “A revolution that continues to evolve thanks to popular support and the growth of awareness, prosperity is really secondary to well-being. And with the introduction of the new well-being monitor, which has replaced GNP (Gross National Product) as the main indicator, I expect that as a country, as Europe and ultimately as a world, we will be able to start giving much better direction to a society based on the value of well-being.” The interview at Jinek is running late. On live TV for nearly an hour, it reflects on the climate effects of the post-Corona era. “It will never be like it was,” “no,” thinks Layla, “it will be much better.”
Post-Corona Scenario 2: Prosperity and climate.
December 2022
“It is as it was again,” Layla repeats to herself the words of Prime Minister Rutte. Corona plunged the world into a major crisis, but we recovered. “Thankfully back to square one,” she thinks, with the environmental changes we needed. The Corona crisis could have lasted much longer but through forceful government action we fought all the symptoms.
During the Corona era you saw it happening everywhere, a sense of a great crisis was created and uncertainty arose. And that uncertainty suddenly created popular support for radical change. There are strong men at the helm of the Netherlands, who saw that it was necessary. By pumping a lot of money into the economy, very good results came. The Rutte Plan has been a great success, the free fall in bankruptcies has been stopped and many jobs have been created. There is also a lot more government control. Often using apps, big-data and artificial intelligence, there is monitoring in the area of health, but also in the spending of government subsidies and paying taxes such as the newly introduced carbon tax.
“Five more minutes!” A voice shakes Layla awake from her daydream. “Focus Lalya,” she tells herself, “you’re about to be up.” Quickly scrolling through her notes, the key message is clear: thanks to welfareism, the world is back to the way it was but with a green slant. Then the time comes. With a confident stride, she walks through the studio and sits down at Jinek’s table. Just a brief shaking of hands to connect with everyone and then it’s on. “…And at the table today is Layla Baker, climate researcher and author of the book: The Carbon Saving Virus, about Corona’s impact on climate change,” the hostess begins. “I read your book and was stunned by the conclusion; the climate problem will be solved by 2050…How about this?”.
“The figures, although still preliminary, seem to show this. First, by 2020 we saw a huge reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as particulate matter and nitrogen, particularly due to reductions from the transportation and industrial sectors. Globally, we are talking about a 35% reduction from a year earlier. This has everything to do with the lockdowns. As normal life slowly resumed, people were living much more consciously. That is the main cause of people’s changing behavior. It seems we all came to appreciate the limitation of our lives. The demand for goods and entertainment happily rose again and our economy began to turn again. But now with a green edge. I will give four examples:
- The Corona crisis has finally brought acceptance of tech solutions that are climate-friendly. Take working from home. We have seen that this actually works. Employees are happier, experience less stress, are more productive. And with an average CO2 reduction of 25%, it really is a climate-friendly way of working. Now that children are going back to school, there is also more room to make working from home the standard.
- And that they put you back on the road. There are 50% less traffic jams. That’s really a pre-Corona thing. Space has been made for transportation that has only benefited our country as a trading nation. The introduction of the 100 km speed limit has helped tremendously in this regard, as has the introduction of a carbon tax on polluting products. That tax financed the Rutte Plan, so this cuts both ways.
- Also interesting is the dependence we had on “cheap” manufacturing in low-wage countries. We see that a much larger portion of the workforce, first employed in transportation & logistics, have now started manufacturing businesses locally. Thanks to the government’s Rutte Plan, more than a million jobs have been created for work previously done elsewhere. Work that people are proud of, craftsmanship and trades are valued again. Local production does not seem to directly lead to national CO2 reduction, but it does lead to global CO2 reduction and that is what is needed.
- And finally, the energy transition. Public support for healthy living has skyrocketed. And because of the carbon tax, gray electricity and fossil fuels have nearly doubled in price. Local energy generation is busy catching up. The demand for windmills, solar panels, green hydrogen and batteries, is so high that new companies have started up all over the Netherlands to capitalize on it.
“So here we are talking about a green evolution, initiated by the Corona crisis,” concludes Eva Jinek. “Exactly,” adds Layla: “An evolution thanks to popular support and the growth of awareness of the value of a healthier world has led to a structural reduction of CO2 emissions. Gross National Product (GNP) growth goes hand in hand with CO2 reduction, something that was thought impossible in a pre-Corona era. The interview at Jinek is running late. On live TV, it spends nearly an hour discussing the climate effects of the post-Corona era. “It’s back to the way it was, “no,” thinks Layla, “it’s getting much better.”